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Gas Production Chart
Gas Production Chart
Existing and planning pipeline to EU
Existing and planning pipeline to EU
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For your entertainment
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From Persuasion to Coercion

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1From Persuasion to Coercion. Russia 12by Naftogaz Druzhba Pipeline (“friendship
& Ukraine Energy Crisis Case pipeline”) transports large quantities of
International Conflict Group. Fundamentals Russian oil/gas to Europe Countries
of Conflict Studies Prof. Catherine include: Russia, Ukraine, Germany, Poland,
Gerard. Hungary, Belarus, Czech Republic, etc.
2Presentation Outline. Discussion on Disputes addressing taxation rights and
persuasion & coercion Energy ownership of the pipeline territory have
Structure: Russia – Ukraine Tit-for-Tat occurred between Russia and Ukraine.
Analysis Group Exercise Conclusion. 13Existing and planning pipeline to EU.
3Three Types of Inducements. Persuasive 14Background. CIS formed in Dec 1st 1991
inducements Rewards as inducements Non-payment leads to shutting down supply
Coercive inducements All three (1992) Gazprom and Naftogaz signed an 11
alternatives combined to form conflict year Contract in 2002 Addendum 4 (2004)
strategy. Coercion. Persuasion. Reward. fixed prices and rent per 1000 cubic
4Persuasive Inducements. Persuasive meters.
inducements are efforts to influence an 15Crisis Builds Up. Moscow to continue
opponent by communicating arguments, subsidizing gas contingent upon political
information, or appeals that alter their considerations Orange Revolution (2004)
perception of the conflict. If effective, Gas price increased worldwide (2005)
the tactic of persuasion involves the Russia demands for price adjustment ($160)
recipient becoming convinced of the Ukraine refuses relying on legal contract
other's goal and voluntarily accepting it. Russia’s new demand increases ($230).
Can be appeals to shared values or trying 16From Persuasion to Coercion. Russia
to convince other party what you want is offers to increase rent to Ukraine to $
also good for them. Rewards can play a 1.74 ( Tariffs range from $ 0.9 to $ 2.7 )
role in persuasion. Money, land, access. Ukraine offered to pay price increase in
5Coercive Inducements. Coercion, or weapons and also agreed to gradual
negative sanctions. Coercion refers to increase Russia argues they are paying for
actions, including symbolic ones that Ukrainian gas and offers a consortium
injure or threaten injury to the Ukraine threatens to revise Black Sea
adversary. The actions are intended to Fleet Contract Russia refuses to revise
intimidate and deter the adversary from the lease rate as it was against the
acting coercively themselves, and/or to provisions of the 1997 Treaty.
force the opponent to yield to one's 17Tipping the Scale. Ukraine strengthens
demands. The cessation of coercion is ties with the West Russia issues ultimatum
conditional on the opponent's compliance to turn off gas supply Ukraine suggests
with these demands. Can be threatened or international arbitration on Dec 13th 2005
actual acts. Usually coercion is threaten Prime Minister Yuriy Yekhamrov visits
first. Violent coercion and non-violent Moscow for talks on Dec 19th to phase the
coercion. Violent coercion includes: acts hike Russia offers a $ 3.6 billion loan to
of terrorism, sabotage, assassination, Ukraine to offset price increase Also
military attacks, and police suppression. agrees to postpone increase to April 2006
Coercion can also be nonviolent: contingent upon immediate agreement on
withholding purchases or services, as in price.
boycotts or strikes. 18For your entertainment.
6When persuasive/coercive tactics are 19Interests & Motivations.
used. PERSUASION Use rewards in closing 20Interests & Motivations. Rights of
stages of a conflict. Use rewards to Pipeline Russia: --- Pro-Moscow president
transform a conflict In combination with at the Ukraine --- Market Prices ---
coercion. COERCION To induce an adversary Secure supply (aging infrastructure)
to change against their will” In Ukraine: --- Political Independence ---
combination with non-coercive tactics. Secure Energy source.
7Four factors affect the escalation 21Timeline Exercise. Identify when
tactics and strategies. the disputants' persuasion and/or coercion was used
goals in the conflict their internal Succinctly comment on its effectiveness
characteristics the relations between them Discuss better Alternatives (if any) e.g.
their social environment. Interest-based Negotiation Mediation
8Energy Structure: Russia-Ukraine. Litigation.
9Russia. 22% of the world's total 22Timeline Exercise. Results
annual natural gas production. Has a fifth Strengthening of the Orange Revolution
of the world’s known reserves of natural Election of pro-western democratic leader
gas. Presently supplies about 25% of Russian finacial support (3.6bn loan)
Europe's natural gas imports through Wake-up call to EU’s dependence on Russian
Ukraine (Soyuz, Brotherhood) and Belarus energy supplies EU to diversify energy
(Yamal-Europe pipeline). sources.
10Gas Production Chart. 23Debrief. Conditions when Persuasion is
11Ukraine. 4th largest importer and 6th a better tactic Conditions when Coercion
largest consumer of natural gas in the is a better tactic Mixing the tactics to
world Corresponds to 85% of its annual obtain the most beneficial outcome.
energy needs Highly dependent on imported 24For your entertainment Continued.
gas from Russia Important transmission 25Aftermath. Russia resumes supply of
site for gas exported from Russia to gas to Ukraine on 3rd Jan 2006 Agreement
Western Europe Gas transmission system is reached between Russia and Ukraine on 4th
the second largest on the continent. Jan 2006 Gazprom receives $ 230 for Gas
12Pipeline System: Russia to Ukraine. Ukraine receives $ 1.60 as enhanced
Ukraine has approximately 35,600 tariff.
kilometers of gas pipelines, all operated 26Thank you.
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From Persuasion to Coercion

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