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From Persuasion to Coercion
содержание презентации «From Persuasion to Coercion.PPT»| Сл | Текст | Сл | Текст |
| 1 | From Persuasion to Coercion. Russia | 12 | by Naftogaz Druzhba Pipeline (“friendship |
| & Ukraine Energy Crisis Case | pipeline”) transports large quantities of | ||
| International Conflict Group. Fundamentals | Russian oil/gas to Europe Countries | ||
| of Conflict Studies Prof. Catherine | include: Russia, Ukraine, Germany, Poland, | ||
| Gerard. | Hungary, Belarus, Czech Republic, etc. | ||
| 2 | Presentation Outline. Discussion on | Disputes addressing taxation rights and | |
| persuasion & coercion Energy | ownership of the pipeline territory have | ||
| Structure: Russia – Ukraine Tit-for-Tat | occurred between Russia and Ukraine. | ||
| Analysis Group Exercise Conclusion. | 13 | Existing and planning pipeline to EU. | |
| 3 | Three Types of Inducements. Persuasive | 14 | Background. CIS formed in Dec 1st 1991 |
| inducements Rewards as inducements | Non-payment leads to shutting down supply | ||
| Coercive inducements All three | (1992) Gazprom and Naftogaz signed an 11 | ||
| alternatives combined to form conflict | year Contract in 2002 Addendum 4 (2004) | ||
| strategy. Coercion. Persuasion. Reward. | fixed prices and rent per 1000 cubic | ||
| 4 | Persuasive Inducements. Persuasive | meters. | |
| inducements are efforts to influence an | 15 | Crisis Builds Up. Moscow to continue | |
| opponent by communicating arguments, | subsidizing gas contingent upon political | ||
| information, or appeals that alter their | considerations Orange Revolution (2004) | ||
| perception of the conflict. If effective, | Gas price increased worldwide (2005) | ||
| the tactic of persuasion involves the | Russia demands for price adjustment ($160) | ||
| recipient becoming convinced of the | Ukraine refuses relying on legal contract | ||
| other's goal and voluntarily accepting it. | Russia’s new demand increases ($230). | ||
| Can be appeals to shared values or trying | 16 | From Persuasion to Coercion. Russia | |
| to convince other party what you want is | offers to increase rent to Ukraine to $ | ||
| also good for them. Rewards can play a | 1.74 ( Tariffs range from $ 0.9 to $ 2.7 ) | ||
| role in persuasion. Money, land, access. | Ukraine offered to pay price increase in | ||
| 5 | Coercive Inducements. Coercion, or | weapons and also agreed to gradual | |
| negative sanctions. Coercion refers to | increase Russia argues they are paying for | ||
| actions, including symbolic ones that | Ukrainian gas and offers a consortium | ||
| injure or threaten injury to the | Ukraine threatens to revise Black Sea | ||
| adversary. The actions are intended to | Fleet Contract Russia refuses to revise | ||
| intimidate and deter the adversary from | the lease rate as it was against the | ||
| acting coercively themselves, and/or to | provisions of the 1997 Treaty. | ||
| force the opponent to yield to one's | 17 | Tipping the Scale. Ukraine strengthens | |
| demands. The cessation of coercion is | ties with the West Russia issues ultimatum | ||
| conditional on the opponent's compliance | to turn off gas supply Ukraine suggests | ||
| with these demands. Can be threatened or | international arbitration on Dec 13th 2005 | ||
| actual acts. Usually coercion is threaten | Prime Minister Yuriy Yekhamrov visits | ||
| first. Violent coercion and non-violent | Moscow for talks on Dec 19th to phase the | ||
| coercion. Violent coercion includes: acts | hike Russia offers a $ 3.6 billion loan to | ||
| of terrorism, sabotage, assassination, | Ukraine to offset price increase Also | ||
| military attacks, and police suppression. | agrees to postpone increase to April 2006 | ||
| Coercion can also be nonviolent: | contingent upon immediate agreement on | ||
| withholding purchases or services, as in | price. | ||
| boycotts or strikes. | 18 | For your entertainment. | |
| 6 | When persuasive/coercive tactics are | 19 | Interests & Motivations. |
| used. PERSUASION Use rewards in closing | 20 | Interests & Motivations. Rights of | |
| stages of a conflict. Use rewards to | Pipeline Russia: --- Pro-Moscow president | ||
| transform a conflict In combination with | at the Ukraine --- Market Prices --- | ||
| coercion. COERCION To induce an adversary | Secure supply (aging infrastructure) | ||
| to change against their will” In | Ukraine: --- Political Independence --- | ||
| combination with non-coercive tactics. | Secure Energy source. | ||
| 7 | Four factors affect the escalation | 21 | Timeline Exercise. Identify when |
| tactics and strategies. the disputants' | persuasion and/or coercion was used | ||
| goals in the conflict their internal | Succinctly comment on its effectiveness | ||
| characteristics the relations between them | Discuss better Alternatives (if any) e.g. | ||
| their social environment. | Interest-based Negotiation Mediation | ||
| 8 | Energy Structure: Russia-Ukraine. | Litigation. | |
| 9 | Russia. 22% of the world's total | 22 | Timeline Exercise. Results |
| annual natural gas production. Has a fifth | Strengthening of the Orange Revolution | ||
| of the world’s known reserves of natural | Election of pro-western democratic leader | ||
| gas. Presently supplies about 25% of | Russian finacial support (3.6bn loan) | ||
| Europe's natural gas imports through | Wake-up call to EU’s dependence on Russian | ||
| Ukraine (Soyuz, Brotherhood) and Belarus | energy supplies EU to diversify energy | ||
| (Yamal-Europe pipeline). | sources. | ||
| 10 | Gas Production Chart. | 23 | Debrief. Conditions when Persuasion is |
| 11 | Ukraine. 4th largest importer and 6th | a better tactic Conditions when Coercion | |
| largest consumer of natural gas in the | is a better tactic Mixing the tactics to | ||
| world Corresponds to 85% of its annual | obtain the most beneficial outcome. | ||
| energy needs Highly dependent on imported | 24 | For your entertainment Continued. | |
| gas from Russia Important transmission | 25 | Aftermath. Russia resumes supply of | |
| site for gas exported from Russia to | gas to Ukraine on 3rd Jan 2006 Agreement | ||
| Western Europe Gas transmission system is | reached between Russia and Ukraine on 4th | ||
| the second largest on the continent. | Jan 2006 Gazprom receives $ 230 for Gas | ||
| 12 | Pipeline System: Russia to Ukraine. | Ukraine receives $ 1.60 as enhanced | |
| Ukraine has approximately 35,600 | tariff. | ||
| kilometers of gas pipelines, all operated | 26 | Thank you. | |
| From Persuasion to Coercion.PPT | |||
From Persuasion to Coercion
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