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Great to be invited
Great to be invited
Who am I
Who am I
Where is Groningen
Where is Groningen
A small, but old city
A small, but old city
With a rather old university
With a rather old university
A student city
A student city
With a soccer/football club
With a soccer/football club
Now the issue of payouts
Now the issue of payouts
a1 and a2 in the EU
a1 and a2 in the EU
Dividends and repurchases
Dividends and repurchases
Payouts by asset decile EU
Payouts by asset decile EU
Trend in total payout amounts (EU)
Trend in total payout amounts (EU)
Trend in cash dividend payers
Trend in cash dividend payers
Dividends disappear also in the EU
Dividends disappear also in the EU
But repurchasing firms appear
But repurchasing firms appear
What drives firms to pay
What drives firms to pay
What drives payment amounts
What drives payment amounts
Risk effects (US)
Risk effects (US)
No systematic differences between initiators and omitters
No systematic differences between initiators and omitters
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Strategic Corporate Finance Recent insights in payout policies Henk von Eije University of Groningen

содержание презентации «Strategic Corporate Finance Recent insights in payout policies Henk von Eije University of Groningen.pptx»
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1Strategic Corporate Finance Recent 30of small firms? This is not very likely;
insights in payout policies Henk von Eije in fact small and large firms are
University of Groningen. generally rationally managed, though not
2Great to be invited. necessarily on behalf of the shareholders
3Who am I? So there may be other reasons than
http://www.rug.nl/staff/j.h.von.eije/. stupidity!
4Where is Groningen? 4. 31Tax rates differ too. Dividends are
5A small, but old city. 5. often taxed at a higher rate than
6With a rather old university. 6. repurchases So what should be paid more?
7A student city. 7. Dividends or repurchases?
8With a soccer/football club. 8. 32Trend in total payout amounts (EU).
9Now the issue of payouts. 33Dividend and repurchase amounts. If
10Background: 2 papers. Henk von Eije dividends are taxed more, dividend amounts
and William L. Megginson (2008), Dividends should be lower than repurchase amounts In
and share repurchases in the European fact the opposite is true, so tax may not
Union, Journal of Financial Economics, 89, be the major driver But … repurchase
347-374. Henk von Eije, Abhinav Goyal, Cal amounts increase faster and Skinner (2008)
Muckley, Does the information content of finds that repurchases are dominant now in
payout initiations and omissions influence the US Still, tax is -at best- a relative
firm risks?, Journal of Econometrics, explanation.
forthcoming. 34Non-tax explanations. Irrational
11Many payout questions. What are behavior? Asymmetric information? Signals
payouts? How do we measure them? Do on future earnings Signal on lower growth
managers like them? What are the long term opportunities Agency problems? Size,
trends? What causes firms to pay or not to leverage, retained earnings, age Firm
pay If firms pay, what causes them to pay risk? Country / industry / firm
more? Do shareholders like payouts? Do background?
debtholders like payouts? 35Irrational behavioral theories.
12What can you tell me on payouts? Clientele effects Shares owned by widows,
13Payouts. What are payouts? cash orphans, elderly and/or financial
dividends and repurchases (buy backs) How institutions (Mutual funds) Cyclical
do we measure them? by amounts paid and managerial behavior Only paying if
whether firms pay or not. dividend payers have a higher price to
14When do they occur? (institutional book value than non-payers (Baker and
aspects). Dividends are announced Wurgler, 2004) Dove in the hand theory
(announcement day), if restrictions set by http://slack-time.com/music-video-4944-wil
banks and bondholders are avoided Record y-money-in-my-pocket-cash-in-my-hand.
day owners get dividends, then the stock 36Amounts versus payers. Dividend and
is ex dividend (ex dividend day) Generally repurchase amounts have been increasing
the price of the stock declines but with a But what happened to dividend and
smaller amount per share than what is paid repurchase payers?
per share (tax reasons?) Repurchases are 37Trend in cash dividend payers.
announced, and generally during a (long 38What may have caused this? 1) … 2) …
period of time) shares are bought back. 3) …
15Payout issues. Lintner (1956) M&M 39What may have caused this? New firms
(1961) and market imperfections Payout get listed and have less spare money (1)
puzzles (tax imperfection) Declining Existing firms may also have different
propensity to pay Agency theory and other characteristics nowadays (2) There may be
imperfections Signaling (maturity and risk a declining propensity to pay according to
reduction). Fama and French (2001) (3).
16Do managers like dividends? Lintner 40Fama and French, 2001. The propensity
(1956) interviewed managers and developed to pay cash dividends has declined in the
a theory, which is still very relevant USA Young listed firms are generally
Firms increase dividends if their earnings smaller, have less earnings and need more
increase BUT, firms do not increase cash for investments and growth So control
dividends directly Managers are risk for these firm characteristics (What
averse and adapt dividends slowly to measures would you use?).
earnings, because they are very afraid to 41Four variables of F&F 2001. Firm
reduce dividends if earnings become less. size (+), Earnings (+), Past investments
17Lintner. Lintner’s theory can be (-), Expected growth (-) Measure the
measured by: Dt = a0 + a1Et + (1 - a2)Dt-1 sensitivity of paying (or not paying) for
Where a1 represents the sensitivity of these variables in an early period Keep
dividends to current earnings and a2 the the resulting parameter estimates constant
speed of adjustment to current earnings. for next years and use these to estimate
18a1 and a2 in the EU. the number of expected payers Compare
19Dividends and repurchases. these to the actual number of payers.
20Lintner conclusion for EU. Managers 42Dividends disappear also in the EU.
are inclined (or forced) to payout more 43But repurchasing firms appear.
dividends (10.9% before 2000, 21.2% 44Remember the explanations. Earnings
thereafter) … Similar for total payouts Asymmetric information? Growth
(16.5% and 33.9%) AND they also react opportunities, investments Agency
faster to earnings. problems? Size, leverage, retained
21Then came modern finance theory. earnings, age Firm risk? Country, industry
Modigliani and Miller (1958) capital and firm background? Irrational behavior?
structure Miller and Modigliani (1961) Tax.
dividend policy (paying now or later, or 45What drives firms to pay?
by dividends or repurchases) is irrelevant 46Conclusions on payers. Agency costs
IFF the capital markets are perfect and Size (Lsize), Leverage (LLR) and AGE
investors rational, then it is impossible influence cash dividends significantly in
to create value systematically through the expected direction Earnings (LEA),
payout policies. investments (LDDA) and growth
22What was the imperfection that Lintner opportunities (LMBF), and industry (T)
(1956) found? also do so Moreover firm risk (LSDS), Tax
23Lintner after M&M 1961. Lintner (DTP), and being in a common law country
found that managers may not be does so too.
indifferent, though according to M&M 47What drives payment amounts?
investers/owners/stockholders would be 48Similar conclusions on payment
indifferent in perfect markets Moreover, amounts. Again agency costs and growth
managers are risk averse, and opportunities Size (Lsize), Leverage
invester/owners allow them to be so with (LLR), AGE and retained earnings
respect to dividends. (character of firm age) Earnings (LEA),
24And it also implies … That investments (LDDA) and growth
shareholders conclude on managerial opportunities (LMBF), and time (T) also do
behavior Initiating dividends may be a so New correct significant variables are
signal of an increase of higher future cash holdings (LCASHA) and being a
earnings (or of more stable future privatized firm (PRIV).
earnings) It may also indicate that 49Second paper. In 2002 Grullon et al.
managers do not want to use the cash for indicate that the value may increase –not
themselves Stopping (omitting) dividends as much as a signal of future earnings-
is very bad. but as a signal on firm maturity and a
25Dividends. With dividends the concomitant reduction (increase) in risk
shareholders are indifferent to paying We check whether this is the case after
dividends if the dividend per share (after major payout event initiations (omissions)
tax) is equal to the reduction in asset in an econometric precise way.
value per share caused by the cash 50Risk effects (US).
dividend payment However, dividends are 51No systematic differences between
taxed by personal income tax, and then initiators and omitters.
shareholders lose some value to the 52Conclusion. We find the expected risk
government With a tax imperfection: do not effects for dividends but not
pay dividends! significantly so for repurchases
26Repurchases. With repurchases the firm Interestingly, it is not only systematic
uses the cash to buy shares. Shareholders risk, but also idiosyncratic risks
who sell the shares get the cash. Unanswered: Do the positive (negative)
Shareholders who do not sell get access to value effects after initiations
the remaining cash flows and assets A fair (omissions) arise from risk effects and
repurchase price equals the value of the does idiosyncratic risk also matter?
remaining assets per remaining shareholder 53What to remember? Payouts consist of
But, because repurchases are also taxed, dividends and repurchases and is measured
firms should not repurchase either! by amounts and incidence (paying firms)
27Funky dividends. Lintner (1956) developed a very important
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MUsaSCRdtYI theory based on managerial risk aversion
28Payout puzzle. Despite taxation of After Miller and Modigliani (1961) many
dividends and repurchases, firms still pay theories are developed that (partially)
out! Is this caused by stupidly managed work in the EU, like tax, irrational
firms? behavior, agency theory, and maturity
29Payouts by asset decile EU. signaling There is a major reduction in
30Dominance of large firms. Mostly firm risks after initiations and an
payouts are done by large firms. Are their increase after omissions.
managers less knowledgeable than managers 54Спасибо.
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