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Google, gaming & getting ahead Games & Observational LearningPatrick A. McNutt, FRSA Web: www.patrickmcnutt.com McNutt: Game Embedded Strategy (2010) McGraw Hill |
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Q: What is Game Theory aboutA: Observational learning in a time continuum Finding & extracting a pattern from a sequence of moves (historic v real-time) Understanding the pattern as wave movements Information embedded in observed behaviour Information filtering and ‘transactive’ memory? |
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Q: So whatWhy? Information has a value Individual memory is ‘outsourced’ to Google, Facebook, LinkedIn… Behaviour can be ‘tracked’ Predicting likely future actions and reactions |
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Tracking decisions: Observe but do not judgeDecisions, action are not isolated events They can reveal a pattern Observe, and filter the information embedded in the signal Information used to monitor and report on individual behaviour Cloud computing FBI Strategic Information & Operations Centre FBI Behavioural Analysis Unit |
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Hegazy-McNutt ‘Non-linear thinking’ image… time continuum |
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Time continuum. observing patterns in time, dT/dt = -1 Last Month… 1 hour ago Last Week… 10 minutes ago Yesterday… 1 minute ago Today… Now Tomorrow… 1 minute later Next Week… 10 minutes later Next Month… 1 hour later |
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Host (updating your belief system) or… Guest (observing signals &type) WHERE TO HOST THE BBQ? Preference Regrets Disappointment Disaster Note: Host [incumbent] v Guest [entrant] |
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SUNRAIN HOUSE Regrets Disappointment GARDEN Preference Disaster |
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Thinking strategically in a time continuum2nd Objective Observing in context What is the information in the pattern observed? 1st Objective Cascade effect Understanding the pattern (eg a restaurant queue, CTL) in what you observe |
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1st Objective: Cascade EffectObserve individual type Private information & truthful revelation: memory cost of deception Action and reaction: Yes Action and diffusion: ‘Black Swan’ effect What market should a firm be in? |
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CTL: 2005 Google & Android2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Apple share price Apple sues Samsung Corporate intentions i2G announced i2G launched i3G announced i3GS launched i3G launched i4 launched i5 BB Pearl BB Tour BB Curve BB Storm BB Bold HTC Dream HTC Magic Samsung Galaxy Nokia sues Apple Samsung sues Apple Nokia operates Windows Motorola CLIQ, Google Nexus G1 Aug Jan Mar Jun Mar Jun Jul Aug G2 Oct Nov Jul Aug Nov Jun Jul Apr Jun ? G3 Jul ‘05 Nov ‘07 Google buys Android Inc Google opens Android Apple invite app developers Oct ‘07 |
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2nd Objective: In ContextSignals: observe but do not judge Signals contain information? Type & Signals Keeping to type: trust and truth Signalling cycle… the critical time line: CTL |
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Architecture of a GamePlaying a game without information Playing a game with ‘good’ signals What is the optimal move, given X? How does the value of the signal vary with X under different actions? Playing to win Playing not to lose |
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CTL – observe and filter the information Example (abstract) GoogleAndroid signalling Critical Time Line Nokia/ Apple/ Google - Western Europe – Mobile Handset Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Mar Aug Jul Sep Mar Apr Jul Feb 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2011 Acquired navteq: digital mapping data Acquired Loudeye to target iTunes Unveil 7705 Twist Acquired Metacarta - local search Announce shift to internet business @ annual stock holder meeting acquired Twango for media sharing Announced intent to buy Enpocket (mobile advertising) Acquired novarra - mobile browser Acquired Metacarta - local search |
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![Game Embedded Strategy [GEMS] & Tn=3](/up/thumbs/90343/017.jpg) |
Game Embedded Strategy [GEMS] & Tn=3The sequence of moves is observed 1. by rivals as a pattern, revealing your ‘type’ as a player…reveals insight into company strategy 2. Can I trust you? Private information is not observable, only actions are. |
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What is strategyCTL: Today’s decision depends on the one we shall make tomorrow Time periods t [action] and t+1[reaction] About extracting information from time period t to time period t+1 Predicting competitor reaction in t+1 Analyse what market your company should be in in t+1 Decisions are not isolated events |
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Trust & Signalling Mismatch (Non-Binding Chat)Example Signal at (March 12 2007) = New Century Financial Shares suspended in the US. Did you observe? Example: Early 2007 Singal b = ‘moonshot’ of reported launch of a gPhone and Apple launch the iPhone earlier than planned in 2007? Example: Leo the Liar is the only person who can save you from a cliff edge where you are hanging on with one hand. Leo asks for your hand so that he can pull you up..do you give Leo your hand? Belief system: Barcelona v Man Utd……I know that he knows that I know…..Player type: Arjen Robben - Man Utd v Bayern Munich [2010] and England v Netherlands [2012] |
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High Price Player ALow Price Player A High Price Player B Cartel, cooperation B’s loss Low Price Player B A’s loss Competition |
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Observe the signals & identify the type Understand your strategy assimple action-reaction…where reaction = action of other player Likely reaction from a competitor: Who? Binary Reaction: D or E will react? Non-Binary Reaction: what is probability that D will react? Being ‘ahead of the game’ v ‘we didn’t win by a lot, but we won by enough’ Romney on Michigan Primary Feb 28 2012 Thomas Schelling-John Nash (signalling) premise…. |
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Critical Analysis: SignalsDo not ‘be surprised’ by unseen events Recognise the best that you can do given the reaction of a competitor: the Nash reply Make better informed decisions (on how to respond) |
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TIMELINE – Pre 2006Announcement PS3 production schedule to ship 6 million units by 31 Mar 07 at $499 PS2 launched at $299 PS2 at $199.99 PS2 at $179.99 PS2 at $149.99 100 million PS2 shipped PS2 at $129.99 Xbox at $179 22 million Xbox shipped Microsoft Xbox launched at $299 Revised production schedule for Xbox 360 to 5- 5.5 million units by 30th June 2006 Xbox 360 launched at $399 Xbox at $199 Xbox at $179 Xbox at $149 11 May 04 20 April 06 8 May 06 26 Oct 00 15 Nov 01 14 May 02 15 May 02 13 May 03 14 May 03 29 Mar 04 1 Nov 05 30 Oct 05 22 Nov 05 6 Feb 06 27 April 06 |
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Sequence of Moves as a Wave MovementThe wavelength is the timing of reactions Behaviour is a ‘vibrational pattern’ in time and space Observe the price signals as amplitudes in the wave pattern CTL allows us to observe what sequence would look like in t+1 |
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And ……t+1 is here The future is not what it used to be !! Feel the force, Luke: let go of your conscious self and act on instinct !! Do you agree? |
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Q: Why GEMSA: Opportunities identified that can be seized The biggest risk to a company is ignorance of potential risks, not having a Nash reply, requiring team-driven critical imagination based on SLT… |
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Strategic Lateral Thinking (SLT): filtering information in a timecontinuum Relevance and importance of Player type: vision of t+1 informs action in t Footprints in the game as patterns ‘Near-rival’: Player A reacts first to Player B…why not Player C? Nash reply minimises surprises Market-as-a-game evolving in time ‘Spherical’ competitors from anywhere at anytime in a game..Google & Moto, HP & Palm |
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Thank you for listening………Sapere aude ‘That which one can know, one should dare to know’ |
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Thank you for listening………Mark Twain ‘If you tell the truth you don’t have to remember anything’ |
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Google, gaming & getting ahead Games & Observational LearningPatrick A. McNutt, FRSA Web: www.patrickmcnutt.com McNutt: Game Embedded Strategy (2010) McGraw Hill |
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