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HD VOD Market Shift September 2007
HD VOD Market Shift September 2007
Overview
Overview
VOD Pricing
VOD Pricing
VOD Forecast (Studios’ Revenue) – 2007-2009
VOD Forecast (Studios’ Revenue) – 2007-2009
Impact of SPT as Follower
Impact of SPT as Follower
SPT’s Options
SPT’s Options
Appendix
Appendix
VOD Activity – Traditional
VOD Activity – Traditional
VOD Activity - Broadband
VOD Activity - Broadband
Pay and Free TV Activity
Pay and Free TV Activity
VOD Analysis - Methodology
VOD Analysis - Methodology

Презентация: «HD VOD Market Shift September 2007». Автор: Information Systems. Файл: «HD VOD Market Shift September 2007.ppt». Размер zip-архива: 2223 КБ.

HD VOD Market Shift September 2007

содержание презентации «HD VOD Market Shift September 2007.ppt»
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1 HD VOD Market Shift September 2007

HD VOD Market Shift September 2007

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2 Overview

Overview

Numerous distributors are making access to HD VOD a condition of putting a VOD deal in place, including Xbox, Vaio, and PlayStation The HD market is actively and aggressively growing for both new release and catalog product VOD providers (cable, satellite, IPTV, game consoles) are offering HD VOD Most Pay and Free TV providers are providing between 20 and 30 HD channels, with DirecTV planning to offer up to 150 HD channels by year end 36% of US households will have HDTVs by the end of 2007; of which 44% currently receive HD programming (66% cable, 27% satellite, 8% OTA, 6% IPTV/IP) 1 Consumers have shown a willingness to pay more for HD content, and distributors are passing that premium along to content providers $1.00-$2.00 premium for HD new release and catalog movies Up to a $1.00 premium for HDTV HD will fuel VOD growth and expansion to other means of distribution (e.g. game consoles) SPT will need to choose to be a leader or follower in the transition to HD Staying on the sidelines until summer 2008 may lead to lost revenues for SPT of $30-35M for the first half of 2008

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1 eMarketer, per The Consumer Electronics Association, July 2007

3 VOD Pricing

VOD Pricing

Consumers have shown a willingness to pay higher fees for the opportunity to view HD content

$1.00 - $2.00 premium

$1.00 premium

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4 VOD Forecast (Studios’ Revenue) – 2007-2009

VOD Forecast (Studios’ Revenue) – 2007-2009

HD will likely represent 69% of the VOD market by 2009, with digital TV remaining the dominant means for accessing VOD

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Note: VOD includes NVOD as defined by market research

Source: Kagan Research, "Video on Demand," November 2006; Informa Telecoms & Media, "About HDTV: A Global Analysis (2nd edition)," February 2007; IDC, "U.S. Digital Cable, Satellite, and Telco TV Subscriber 2007-2011 Forecast and Analysis," May 2007; Yankee Group, "2007 Internet Video Forecast," July 2007; IDC, "Worldwide Connected Console 2007–2011 Forecast," August 2007; SPT Analysis

5 Impact of SPT as Follower

Impact of SPT as Follower

Should SPT choose to remain on the sidelines through Summer 2008, SPT will likely forego $30-35M in revenue

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Note: 1. HD revenue %, not download %, for entire year. HD price points are higher than SD, leading to a higher revenue % 2. 60% for new releases, 50% for catalog; 85% of downloads are new releases, 15% are catalog 3. Equals less than 50% of 2008 revenues due to increasing consumption of HD VOD throughout the year

6 SPT’s Options

SPT’s Options

OPTION

PROS

CONS

Secure attractive revenue share, significant marketing commitments and MGs Flexibility to establish wholesale pricing Influence content protection and usage rules Introduce consumers to HD content at a lower price point, driving adoption Generate incremental revenue Secure attractive revenue share for catalog Influence content protection and usage rules Limit risk of Blu Ray cannibalization No current cannibalization of Blu Ray sales

May cannibalize Blu Ray sales Catalog content not highly valued by distribution partners Low demand for catalog product may not yield useful trend data Unlikely to secure marketing commitments No influence on revenue share No influence on content protection or usage rules May negatively impact distribution partner relationships Loss of incremental revenue

Lead Experiment/Test with Catalog Titles Stay on the sidelines

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7 Appendix

Appendix

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8 VOD Activity – Traditional

VOD Activity – Traditional

VOD Provider

HD Activity

Content Providers

Cable Comcast Charter Brighthouse TVN iNDemand Satellite EchoStar (Dish) DirecTV Hotel LodgeNet

Over 100 hours of HD VOD Offer 20 videos / month free in HD deal with Starz! Over 10 HD Channels Over 20 HD Channels (iNDemand provides VOD) HD VOD Club (50 hrs/month) Offering HD VOD 32 HD Channels available Offering HD VOD and PPV Plans to offer 150 HD Channels by end of 2007 Offered HD PPV since 2003 Will begin offering HD VOD in July 2007 20% of VOD movies are HD HDTV launched

Disney, Paramount, Dreamworks, MGM, Lionsgate, Warners MGM, Lionsgate, Starz! NBCU, Dreamworks, New Line Dreamworks, MGM, Disney MGM, Dreamworks, New Line (PPV), Scripps, Discovery Warners – Catalog, MGM

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9 VOD Activity - Broadband

VOD Activity - Broadband

VOD Provider

HD Activity

Content Providers

MovieBeam Xbox Akimbo Verizon FiOS

HD VOD pricing in line with DVD rental pricing Over 1,000 hours of content 50 HD movies available to date HD downloads through its service for Windows Media Ctr FiOS TV HD Set Top Box 22 HDTV channels

Disney, Warners, Fox, NBCU, Paramount, Lionsgate CBS, MTV, NBC, Disney, Warners, Paramount, Lionsgate HDNet

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10 Pay and Free TV Activity

Pay and Free TV Activity

Type

Pay/Free TV Provider

HD Activity

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Pay Cable Broadcast

Starz / Encore HBO / Cinemax Showtime Turner Lifetime MTV Networks FX HDNet / HDNet - Movies Mojo (inHD) NBC Universal Scripps Networks FOX/NBC/ABC/CBS

HD Channel HD On Demand (including Casino Royale) HD Channel HD On Demand (including Sopranos) HD Channel HD On Demand (including Tudors) TNT HD Channel Lifetime Movie Network HD Channel MTVHD Channel MHD: Music HD Channel HD Channel All HD content (SPT licenses to HDNet) Free VOD in HD Universal HD Food Network HD and HGTV HD Channels HD Channels

11 VOD Analysis - Methodology

VOD Analysis - Methodology

VOD and NVOD films are downloaded via: Digital television (cable, satellite, and telco) Broadband (e.g. CinemaNow) Gaming consoles (e.g. Xbox) For digital television, we project VOD revenues using market research and SPT analysis for: Subscriber growth HDTV household growth New release vs. catalog downloads SD vs. HD downloads Market price points For broadband and gaming consoles, we also take into account: Growth in online / active gaming consoles Future availability of HD downloads via broadband We apply a potential HD lift and correlated SD decline for film downloads in digital television in outer years Studios are assumed to retain between 50%-60% of revenue based upon title / quality

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